Macronomicon

Verified Claims

4 min read

Provenance

This standalone page was migrated from the February 2026 compendium corpus.

These claims have been independently confirmed by at least one research report with corroborating data from recognized sources (USGS, EIA, DoD, FAO, IFA, central bank publications, industry analysts).

  1. Malacca Strait transits 80-85% of China’s oil imports [VERIFIED]

    • Source: Videos wpi_6P9SDQM, dxP__XWqCpo, and multiple later references
    • Verdict: Confirmed. Multiple independent assessments place the Malacca transit share for China’s oil imports at 77-80%. Total trade value through Malacca is approximately $3.5 trillion annually, with approximately 60% of China’s total trade value utilizing this route. (Research 01)

  2. Taiwan holds 92% of sub-5nm semiconductor capacity [VERIFIED]

    • Source: Videos dxP__XWqCpo, Qrp0do7eAIY, and Intel-focused videos
    • Verdict: Confirmed. TSMC alone holds approximately 90% of sub-5nm production capacity. (Research 03)

  3. Intel received 3 billion for the Secure Enclave military chip program [VERIFIED]

    • Source: Videos cstXgj-SCqs, zn_5lFf4QqA, soWHOoC_jLc
    • Verdict: Confirmed. The figure was later restructured to $8.9 billion in grants exchanged for a 9.9% non-voting equity stake (August 2025). (Research 03)

  4. China controls approximately 98% of global primary gallium production [VERIFIED]

    • Source: Videos bJlaDSNWq44, Qrp0do7eAIY
    • Verdict: Confirmed by CSIS and USGS data. Primarily a byproduct of China’s massive aluminum industry. Note: this figure has an estimated half-life of 3-5 years as Nyrstar (Belgium) and Rio Tinto develop non-China capacity. (Research 02)

  5. 10-20 year timeline to replicate REE/semiconductor supply chains [VERIFIED]

    • Source: Videos LtmIpDU6OAQ, tWY_x5G-sVs, bJlaDSNWq44
    • Verdict: Confirmed across multiple independent assessments. Developing a rare earth mine takes approximately 10+ years from discovery to production; building a refinery takes 5+ years. DoD and industry roadmaps consistently point to a 2025-2035 horizon for substantial resilience. (Research 02, 03)

  6. Germany’s skilled labor shortage: 1.8 million current, 5 million by 2030 [VERIFIED]

    • Source: Videos on European demographics (4wkLrwcFpwc, rD-D9pYHhdE)
    • Verdict: Confirmed. German Economic Institute (IW) forecasts a shortage of 5 million skilled workers by 2030 due to baby boomer retirements. Current vacancies stand at approximately 1.8 million. (Research 04)

  7. Japan’s labor shortage costs approximately 2.6% of GDP annually [VERIFIED]

    • Source: Videos E8TW2rmrLvI, z59DbftccgU
    • Verdict: Confirmed. Quantified at roughly 16 trillion yen ($104 billion) per year. Corporate bankruptcies attributed to labor shortages rose 32% in 2024 to record levels. (Research 04)

  8. US government holds approximately 9.9% equity stake in Intel [VERIFIED]

    • Source: Videos on Intel consortium model
    • Verdict: Confirmed from late 2025 restructuring. Non-voting stake acquired at $20.47/share. (Research 03)

  9. MP Materials: DoD 110/kg NdPr price floor, 100% offtake [VERIFIED]

    • Source: Multiple videos referencing REMM thesis
    • Verdict: Confirmed. The DoD became the largest shareholder (approximately 15%) with a 10-year guaranteed price floor. First time the federal government became a major shareholder in a critical minerals company. (Research 02)

  10. Potash and phosphate added to 2025 USGS Critical Minerals List [VERIFIED]

    • Source: Videos referencing food/fertilizer vulnerability
    • Verdict: Confirmed. The 2025 list expanded to 60 minerals, adding copper, potash, phosphate, silicon, silver, and uranium. (Research 10)

  11. US imports of Russian fertilizer increased approximately 30% in 2025 [VERIFIED]

    • Source: Videos eQsZZH_sWmo, related food factor discussions
    • Verdict: Confirmed. Driven by lack of alternative supply and specific tariff exclusions. Reached an estimated $5 billion. (Research 10)

  12. China controls approximately 85-91% of rare earth separation/processing [VERIFIED]

    • Source: Multiple REMM-focused videos
    • Verdict: Confirmed. Processing/separation is the critical bottleneck, distinct from the lower mining share of 60-70%. Heavy rare earth processing is near 99%. (Research 02)

  13. China controls approximately 92-94% of permanent magnet manufacturing [VERIFIED]

    • Source: Videos on REMM thesis
    • Verdict: Confirmed. China exports approximately 58,000 tonnes of magnets annually. The US imports almost all its sintered NdFeB magnets. (Research 02)

  14. Russia accounts for approximately 21% of global fertilizer supply [VERIFIED]

    • Source: Videos on food factor
    • Verdict: Confirmed. Russia’s share rose from 19% (2021) to 21% (2024). Largest fertilizer exporter by value ($13.4 billion) and volume. (Research 10)

  15. China controls approximately 29.5-30% of global urea/phosphate production [VERIFIED]

    • Source: Referenced in food supply chain discussions
    • Verdict: Confirmed. China accounts for 30% of global phosphate fertilizer production and approximately 29.5% of the global urea market, with over 40% of global trade in chemical calcium phosphates. (Research 10)

  16. Malacca Strait transits approximately 23.7 million barrels per day of oil [VERIFIED]

    • Source: Energy videos (wpi_6P9SDQM)
    • Verdict: Confirmed. As of 2023, Malacca has surpassed Hormuz (20.9 mb/d) in total oil transit volume. (Research 01)

  17. BoJ holds 52% of all outstanding JGBs [VERIFIED]

    • Source: Videos on yen carry dynamics (ppKGScUyWPs, QZ1lUyRaFuQ)
    • Verdict: Confirmed by central bank data. Creates a market with minimal private liquidity. (Research 06)

  18. Standing Repo Facility hit $74.6 billion in single-day usage (Dec 31, 2025) [VERIFIED]

    • Source: Video QZ1lUyRaFuQ
    • Verdict: Confirmed, with the Fed removing aggregate daily limits. (Research 06)

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