Provenance
This standalone page was migrated from the February 2026 compendium corpus.
Construct A vs Construct B (Audit Framework)
Independent audit of the channel’s framework identified two overlapping but distinct analytical constructs. Construct A is the country-level sovereign resilience score (Food, Energy, Technology, Demographics, Security). Construct B is the investment chokepoint identification system (Food, Energy, Technology, UCI, REMM). The framework conflates these two constructs, creating circular reasoning where geopolitical predictions and investment theses validate each other without independent evidence.
Narrative Convexity Bias
A structural bias identified in the adversarial critique: strong directional calls rely on extreme point estimates, which amplifies conviction while shrinking acknowledged uncertainty. The framework sometimes uses this pattern to strengthen narrative clarity at the expense of epistemic hygiene.
Securitization Bias
The tendency to interpret economic phenomena through national survival framing, often crowding out market adaptation and institutional mediation. Identified as the framework’s primary interpretive bias.
Policy Efficacy Bias
The assumption that state intent converts to effective industrial outcomes more reliably than historical evidence supports. Industrial policy can work, but conditional on governance quality, feedback mechanisms, and political continuity — factors the framework often underweights.
Regime Break
The framework’s anchor claim that the post-1945 globalization regime structurally broke around 2019, with acceleration after Ukraine. The adversarial critique notes this claim is under-specified: without explicit metrics defining “break” (trade/GDP decline, sanctions frequency, export controls, shipping insurance premia), any adverse event can be retrofitted as proof, making the framework narrative-resilient but scientifically loose.
Conviction Tier
The compendium’s system for ranking investment theses by evidence quality. Tier 1: Verified + Strong Evidence (MP Materials, Currency/Plumbing). Tier 2: Plausible but Requires Development (Intel, Process-Stack Monopolies, Pension Repatriation). Tier 3: Underdeveloped or Weak (Drone/Magnet Chain, Counter-Investing, Europe Retaliation Risk).
Appendices A through D (Video Chronology, Country Comparison Matrix, Full Fact-Check Register, and Research Gaps) are available under Appendices.