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Revenue Risk From Us Policy Compliance

• [MISLEADING] ASML faces potential revenue decline of approximately 33% if compelled to follow US restrictions on semiconductor equipment sales and maintenance to China.

  ASML, we said this the other day, is looking at a 33% decline in revenue if they follow what America says.

  • Correction: The 33% figure in the claim represents ASML’s current China revenue share (approximately €10.8 billion of €32.7 billion total revenue in 2025), not the percentage decline. If ASML were forced to cease all China operations including servicing, the company could lose its entire 33% China revenue segment plus associated high-margin installed-base service revenue. Analysts estimate a worst-case MATCH Act scenario could cost €5-8 billion annually, which would represent a 15-25% impact on projected 2026 revenues of €36-40 billion.