Tier 2 Japan

• [MISLEADING] The Nikkei 225 reached an all-time high following Tatachi’s election, consistent with expectations that fiscal stimulus would be expansionary for equities.

  the stock market is up since TACI was elected into an all-time high, which makes total sense. We’re pumping the economy. It’s going to be reflected in the stock market.

  • Correction: The Nikkei 225 hit all-time highs in July 2024 (before Ishiba’s election). Post-election, the market continued to trade near highs on fiscal stimulus expectations, but the record was set earlier. The claim conflates pre-existing bull market momentum with election-specific impact.
• [MISLEADING] The Norinchukin Bank’s $12 billion crystallized loss on US Treasuries, combined with Japanese life insurers’ $60 billion in unrealized JGB losses and banks’ over-$1 trillion in bond portfolio losses, constitutes a systemic financial stability risk that could force Japan to liquidate US Treasury holdings.

  This bank just took a 12 billion. Here’s all their life insurance companies under 60 billion. People think that the Japanese bank’s looking at way over a trillion dollars worth of losses

  • Correction: The loss figures cited are roughly consistent with available data, but the claim overstates the systemic risk. Japanese financial institutions have large capital buffers and the losses are largely unrealized. Forced liquidation of US Treasuries is not imminent—insurers can hold to maturity. The risk is real but the urgency implied is exaggerated.
• [UNVERIFIED] Japan’s recovery plan to rebuild domestic tungsten capability is valued at approximately 100 million USD, with production in very small quantities.

  15 billion 16 billion dollar yen is about 100 million bucks