Tier 2 Spacex

Bear Case

• [UNVERIFIED] The insider selling schedule for SpaceX allows for the sale of 20% of locked-up shares two weeks post-IPO, with another 10% eligible for sale if the stock price increases by 30%.

  after 2 weeks, 20% of the lock-up shareholders, and now listen… And not only that, if the stock is up 30%, they can sell another 10%

  • Correction: SpaceX has not announced an IPO, and therefore no official lock-up schedule for insider selling exists.
• [UNVERIFIED] An allocation of 5% of the IPO, or approximately 27 million shares, is reserved for selected employees and friends/family, who are permitted to sell these shares immediately upon listing.

  SpaceX also rear 5% of the IPO shares. So, 83 million divided by three, that gives you 5%. So, over 20 some million shares, uh 27 million shares for selected employees and executive friends and family, they can sell immediately.

  • Correction: SpaceX is a private company and has not filed for an IPO, so no details about share allocation have been published.
• [FALSE] SpaceX insiders are subject to an accelerated lock-up schedule, allowing them to sell all their shares within 135 days, a significant reduction from the traditional six-month period.

  So, in 135 days they’re out, when before you couldn’t sell share one and then small percentages after 6 months.

  • Correction: IPO lock-up periods do not apply to SpaceX as it is a private company and has not held an Initial Public Offering.

Bull Case

• [FALSE] The S&P 500’s standard requirement of four quarters of GAAP profitability for index inclusion was allegedly waived for SpaceX, which is claimed to be losing $20-22 billion per year.

  they refused to waive the that you need four quarters of GAAP profitability. So, Musk went to the S&P 500 and says, “Listen, I want in after five days, and not only that, I want to go into the S&P 500 with no profitability.” Remember, they’re losing 20, 22 billion dollars a year.

  • Correction: SpaceX is a private company and does not meet the S&P 500’s public listing and profitability requirements for inclusion. The profitability rule has not been waived.
• [FALSE] A special dispensation from the SEC allegedly allows the SpaceX IPO to be included in major indices after five trading days, bypassing the traditional one-year waiting period for new listings.

  stocks were not IPOs were not allowed in for a year, okay? Until now. And Musk went to the SEC and asked for special dispensation, and he was given it. And you can see here, they passed in late April of 2026. Five trading days after the IPO.

  • Correction: Index inclusion rules are set by private providers like S&P, not the SEC. SpaceX is a private company and has not IPO’d, so claims of special treatment for index inclusion are unfounded.
• [MISLEADING] Retail investors who purchase SpaceX IPO shares through brokers like Fidelity are reportedly banned from selling for the first two weeks, facing a potential 6-month to permanent trading ban if they violate this rule.

  You’re banned from trading for at least 6 months and possibly permanently if you sell that stock within the first 2 weeks of the IPO.

  • Correction: Brokerage anti-flipping policies are real, but the required holding period is not a fixed ‘two weeks’ and varies by institution (e.g., 15-30 days).
• [FALSE] BlackRock has publicly stated its intent to purchase between $5 billion and $10 billion of SpaceX stock, with these purchases intended for the retail client accounts under its management.

  BlackRock announces, “Oh, great job. We’re going to buy 5 to 10 billion dollars worth of SpaceX.” Guess what? They’re going to buy it into the accounts that they manage for retail clients.

  • Correction: BlackRock has not made any public statements about purchasing SpaceX stock. Reports about their potential interest are based on anonymous sources.

The Thesis

• [FALSE] The SpaceX IPO is structured with 555 million shares, which includes a green shoe option for an additional 83 million shares (15%) for stabilization.

  SpaceX, they have 555 million shares and at 15% that leaves them with 83 million extra shares that is the green shoe

  • Correction: SpaceX is a private company and has not had an IPO. The share numbers and green shoe option described are unsubstantiated.