Tier 2 Ubs

• [UNVERIFIED] OK Conor’s actual First Brands exposure reached approximately 21.4%, split indirectly across First Brands’ various customers, exceeding the stated 20% single-position limit for investor disclosures.

  at 21.4% of the exposure was indirect and split across first brand’s various customers

• [UNVERIFIED] OK Conor is in the process of being sold to Caner Fitzgerald (affiliated with Lutnick, now part of the Trump administration), with the fund liquidations likely to prompt renegotiation of deal terms.

  O’ Conor is actually being in the process of being sold to Caner Fitzgerald which is Harold Lut Howard Lutnik who’s now with Trump

• [UNVERIFIED] OK Conor, the private credit commodity specialist, had approximately 30% of its portfolio concentrated in First Brands positions.

  Okconor the private credit commodity specialist had 30% of his portfolio tied to first brand

• [UNVERIFIED] European banks are up approximately 40% for the year while UBS is down 3%, suggesting the market is pricing in the Swiss capital requirement vote as a negative for UBS.

  European banks are up around 40%. UBS is down 3% for the year.

  • Correction: This claim requires specific date verification. European bank indices did show significant recovery in 2024, but the exact 40% figure depends on the time period. The causation attributed to ‘capital requirement vote’ is speculative without further evidence of market commentary linking UBS underperformance specifically to regulatory proposals.
• [UNVERIFIED] UBS’s total invoice fund exposure to First Brands is approximately $600 million, with plans to monetize 70% of OK Conor’s First Brands exposure by year-end.

  we have a total of around an invoice fund around 600 million, but they aim to monetize 70% of the Okconor fund with its first brand exposure by the end of the year

• [MISLEADING] UBS has a balance sheet of approximately $1.7 trillion and is leveraged 10-15 times, implying the capital requirement represents $250-400 billion in adjusted balance sheet exposure.

  They have a $1.7 trillion balance sheet, 25 billion. So what you have to ask yourself is what are they leveraged at? Are they leveraged at 10 times 15 times? If they’re leveraged at 10 times, that’s $250 billion that they have to pull down. And if they’re 15 times, which they probably are, if not more, that’s $400 billion.

  • Correction: UBS’s risk-weighted capital ratio (~14.5% CET1) implies effective leverage closer to 7x on risk-weighted assets, not 10-15x. The $250-400 billion figure does not match any known regulatory capital requirement methodology. Regulatory capital is based on risk-weighted assets, not total balance sheet exposure.
• [UNVERIFIED] UBS has approximately $500 million in exposure to First Brands across its investment arm, specifically through its OK Conor subsidiary.

  UBS was in there with their funds. I believe they’re OK Conor funds and they had a position in First Brand. So they had and they’re saying 500 million of exposure to First Brand across its investment arm

Bull Case

• [UNVERIFIED] Swiss bank UBS Group forecast that SLR rule changes would deliver a 35% boost in earnings per share and a 6% increase in return on average tangible common equity.

  UBS they’re actually saying no you have to have another 2% on top of the 5%. And UBS is crying but as you can see they’re going to go through with it. and they forecast that this will be a 35% boost in their earnings per share and and a 6% increase on their return on average tangible common equity