Argentina And Latam

• [UNVERIFIED] The libertarian coalition suffered an electoral defeat in Buenos Aires province on September 7th, losing by approximately 17 to 20 percentage points in a province containing one-third of Argentina’s population.

  on September 7th, the libertarians suffered an unexpected landslide defeat. I think they lost by 20 points, 17 20 points in the province that has a third of the Argentines

• [UNVERIFIED] The outcome of Argentina’s October 26 general election—potentially ending Milei’s presidency—may not alter US support for Argentina, given US investors’ $278 billion exposure to Argentine dollar debt.

  if Malay is gone… will Trump then walk on Argentina? I don’t think so. I think he’s never walking on them because all our billionaires, all their money is in that 278 billion

• [UNVERIFIED] The United States will continue to support Argentina through IMF programs and bilateral intervention to prevent default, because US-based creditors hold approximately $278 billion in Argentine dollar debt.

  I think he’s never walking on them because all our billionaires, all their money is in that 278 billion

• [UNVERIFIED] Argentina’s October 26th election presents a catalyst risk for peso devaluation, with currency traders assessing both pre-election and post-election break scenarios potentially triggering 30% peso decline.

  Is Melee going to get reelected on the 26th of October? Odds are no. What happens? Do they break it before the election or after the election? If they break it before the election, the peso declines 30%.

What Is Predicted

• [UNVERIFIED] The United States extended a currency swap to Argentina valued at $20 billion (later reported as $18 billion by other sources), enabling Argentina to obtain dollars to service external debt obligations.

  we gave them a $20 billion uh currency swap so that they could get dollars so they could pay off their debt

  • Correction: The US did not extend a Federal Reserve currency swap to Argentina. Argentina has an IMF program with disbursements, and there may have been bilateral credit discussions under the Milei administration, but these are distinct mechanisms from a Federal Reserve currency swap line.
• [FALSE] Argentina executed soybean sales to China at a time when the US-Argentina financial package was understood to require Argentina to reduce economic ties with Beijing, creating a contradiction between stated commitments and observed trade flows.

  Argentina was selling soybeans to China despite a US trade deal requiring Buenazer to cut ties with Beijing

  • Correction: No such US-Argentina trade deal requiring Argentina to cut economic ties with China exists. Argentina trades freely with both the US and China, and there is no evidence of any US demand that Argentina cease soybean exports to China.
• [UNVERIFIED] The Argentine peso is expected to devalue 30-50% regardless of electoral outcomes, placing Argentine dollar bond holdings at significant risk of non-recovery.

  this currency which everybody thinks is going to go down 30 to 50% no matter what happens