Inflation

• [UNVERIFIED] Global structural inflation is trending upward, driven by elevated M2 liquidity, persistent tariff-driven cost increases, and fiscal expansion pressures.

  the point is is that inflation is still moving up around the world

• [UNVERIFIED] The US economy faces a three-wave inflationary structure: wave one has passed, the economy is currently in a trough, and wave two may be triggered by tax cut passage.

  I believe we have three inflationary waves. We’ve had wave one. We’re in the in the little wave one. We’re in the in the little trough here. We’re getting ready for wave two

Energy Driven Disinflation Ending

• [UNVERIFIED] US PCE inflation has been primarily sustained by declining energy prices; a significant oil price shock from Persian Gulf disruption would reverse this disinflationary trend.

  The only reason our inflation numbers are down that PCE is because of our energy prices. The only reason. Okay, that is over. Totally over

What Is Predicted

• [UNVERIFIED] US equities are predicted to fall by 28%, with real rates rising by 1.5%.

  Equities will go down 28%, and real rates will rise by 1.5%.

• [UNVERIFIED] US housing prices are predicted to decline by 42% amidst rising mortgage rates.

  housing prices decline by 42%.

• [UNVERIFIED] The US inflation rate is predicted to reach between 12% and 15%, with a specific model pointing to 14.2%.

  I said I believe the inflation rate in America will go between um 12 and 15%. Claude thinks it’ll be 14.2.

• [UNVERIFIED] The presenter predicts a second inflationary wave is materializing, which will peak between 12% and 15% year-over-year, with the channel’s ‘five-factor model’ analysis pointing to a specific figure of 14.4%.

  the second wave will be between 12% and 15%. And the five-factor model did the analysis and it came in and said we’re going to go to about 14.4% inflation.

• [UNVERIFIED] A second wave of inflation is predicted to exceed the first, reaching a peak between 12.5% and 15%.

  We’re going to go up there in between 12 and 1/2 and 15 for this second round.

• [UNVERIFIED] A five-factor model is cited to predict that US headline inflation will peak at approximately 14.2%.

  Now this is the five-factor model. They’re just estimating what they think the inflation headline… That we’re going to peak out around 14.2%.

• [UNVERIFIED] The US 10-year Treasury yield is predicted to rise by 80 basis points, with mortgage rates reaching 9.2%.

  10 years going to go up 80 basis points. … Mortgages go to 9.2%

• [UNVERIFIED] The channel projects a future CPI range of 4.3% to 5.0% based on a 6% PPI level, and a CPI of 6.1% to 7.0% if PPI reaches 8.5%, as part of a broader thesis of a ‘second wave’ of inflation.

  So, our CPI projection is going to be 4.3 to 5%. And if it’s an acute shock, we can get a 55 to 65 or 5.7.

• [UNVERIFIED] Energy supply disruptions are predicted to cause a 60-80% increase in US electrical power costs within a 30-60 day timeframe.

  electrical power in the next 30 to 60 days is going to go up 60 to 80%, okay?

• [UNVERIFIED] US food CPI is predicted to reach an 18% year-over-year increase, driven by rising input and transit costs.

  they think that our food CPI is going to be up 18%.