Middle East And Sea Lanes

Evidence Supporting

• [UNVERIFIED] A transaction has been reported involving China’s sale of 40 J-35 fighter jets to Pakistan, financed in part by Saudi Arabia.

  China had sold 40 J-35s to Pakistan for a total $12 billion… And then the very next day, Saudi Arabia announces they’re sending $11 billion to Pakistan

• [UNVERIFIED] India is presented as the most advanced nation in implementing the ‘regulatory nationalization’ of data infrastructure, followed by Indonesia and the EU.

  India is the most advanced on this, then comes Indonesia, and the EU

What Is Predicted

• [UNVERIFIED] The channel predicts that major insurers like Lloyd’s and reinsurers like Munich Re and Swiss Re will follow Marsh McLennan’s lead by embedding the Hormuz toll regime into their contracts.

  Saying, “Does Lloyd market follow Marsh, okay?” On the reinsurance uh follow-through, does Munich Re or Swiss Re writing the coordination clause into reinsurance treaties equal full architectural lock-in?

• [UNVERIFIED] The United States is undergoing a permanent and structural withdrawal of military and political influence from the Middle East, creating a power vacuum.

  I believe it’s clear that the United States is leaving and will be forced out of the Middle East. And so, then the question you have to ask yourself is who fulfill who fills that vacuum?

• [UNVERIFIED] The channel predicts the formation of a new regional security framework in the Middle East and South Asia, led by Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan.

  that regional security, as we stated about a week or 10 days ago, is going to be Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan and we can’t do anything about it, nothing at all,

• [UNVERIFIED] The channel predicts that other Asian maritime nations, such as Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines, will follow Thailand’s lead in using China as a sovereign broker for Hormuz transit.

  And what the model is telling us is look at Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Sri Lanka, and South Korea to see if this happens.

• [UNVERIFIED] A predicted geopolitical realignment in the Middle East involves China leading a post-conflict reconstruction of Iran, Turkey providing security for Gulf states in exchange for discounted energy, and a phased US withdrawal from regional bases.

  That China rebuilds Iran post-conflict… Turkey provides the Gulf states with Sunni Muslim security cover… The US… negotiates a face-saving exit from the Gulf bases over 3 to 7 years.

• [UNVERIFIED] Qatar has communicated a plan to restore 50% of LNG capacity within one month and 80% within two months, contingent on the safe navigation of the Strait of Hormuz.

  Cutter has informed everybody that 50% of capacity will be in reach within 1 month of safe navigation of the Hormuz. … And 80% within 2 months of the Hormuz being open, all right?

• [UNVERIFIED] GCC states are predicted to pivot towards non-alignment and away from reliance on the US security umbrella.

  Well, there’ll be a deliberate pivot to non-alignment, in other words, away from the United States.

• [UNVERIFIED] A new multilateral security framework for the Persian Gulf may emerge, with Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt acting as collective guarantors, displacing the traditional US-led security architecture.

  They say, so they’re looking for a workaround on the multilateral security where Pakistan, China, Turkey and Egypt collectively serve as guarantors.

• [UNVERIFIED] The political and military architecture of the Middle East and Horn of Africa will undergo a fundamental realignment over the next five years, rendering legacy alliances obsolete.

  It’s going to change dramatically over the next 5 years.

• [UNVERIFIED] A trilateral alliance between Turkey, Pakistan, and the GCC is emerging as a credible counterweight to Iran, with structural preconditions for its formation now being met for the first time.

  What’s now is all the preconditions are now present for the first time.

• [UNVERIFIED] A potential 2026 closure of the Strait of Hormuz is predicted to trigger a global energy and commodity crisis significantly larger and more complex than the 1973 oil embargo.

  The 26 on rows closure is a physical choke point seizure that is geographically indiscriminate. Every nation moving oil and LNG through the straight is affected regardless of alignment. That single distinction drives the scale, the difference. Okay, the scale of this 20 26 problem is far greater than 1973.

• [UNVERIFIED] A strategic alliance is forming between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan to act as a regional counterweight.

  there’s been several attempts to create a whatever you want to call it, Islamic NATO or Arabic NATO between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

• [UNVERIFIED] Over a 10-year horizon (to 2036), security for key maritime chokepoints will become partly privatized or fall to regional guarantors as the US withdraws its universal guarantee.

  sea lane security at pri- partly privatized. Think of that. So, um the Hormuz is just first according to the model. In region providers emerge by necessity.

• [UNVERIFIED] The United States is predicted to reach a diplomatic agreement with Iran, driven by the need to prevent a global oil supply collapse.

  I believe that we will come to an agreement with Iran. We’re going to go kicking and screaming.

• [UNVERIFIED] The channel predicts that Indonesia and Malaysia will compel Singapore to establish a formalized toll system for the Strait of Malacca within a 10-15 year timeframe due to demographic pressures.

  Indonesia and Malaysia have demographic pressure. Formalized tolls are inevitable within 10 to 15 years.

• [UNVERIFIED] Turkey is positioned to fill the regional power vacuum left by the US, becoming the primary security guarantor for Gulf states against regional threats.

  If there’s a vacuum, it will be filled by another power… I believe it’s going to be Turkey.

• [UNVERIFIED] The primary mechanism for nationalizing subsea cables is through regulations requiring domestic majority ownership of cable landing stations, annual licensing, and government access to data.

  all cable landing stations need to be majority owned by a domestic entity, licensed annually, subject to real-time government access, and staffed by nationals with security clearances.

• [UNVERIFIED] China is developing strategic infrastructure in South America, including the port of Chancay in Peru and a transcontinental railway, which could create alternative trade routes that bypass the Panama Canal.

  That is the new port that China is building in Peru. And they’re also building a rail system across right across Brazil, down Chile, Argentina, up to Colombia and Venezuela.

• [UNVERIFIED] A global trend of ‘regulatory nationalization’ of subsea cable infrastructure is underway and expected to accelerate over the next 1-2 years.

  I would say odds are every one of these cables in the next year or two are going to be nationalized.