Provenance
This standalone page was migrated from the February 2026 compendium corpus.
What is predicted: Rare earth elements, minerals, and magnets (REMM) constitute the most binding strategic bottleneck for the United States, and even aggressive spending cannot resolve this dependency within a decade. The channel argues this will remain policy-defining for 10-20 years.
Evidence supporting: China controls 60-70% of mining, 85-91% of separation, 92-94% of magnet manufacturing, and approximately 99% of heavy rare earth processing [VERIFIED]. The 10-20 year timeline for supply chain replication is confirmed across multiple independent assessments (Goldman Sachs, CSIS, DoD roadmaps) [VERIFIED]. China has escalated from licensing requirements to outright export bans, including extraterritorial jurisdiction mimicking the US FDPR. Gallium (98% China share [VERIFIED]) poses immediate military vulnerability for radar and electronic warfare systems. MP Materials’ Fort Worth magnet factory does not target commissioning until approximately 2028, and even then addresses only light rare earth magnets — the heavy rare earth gap remains. The 2025 USGS Critical Minerals List expanded to 60 minerals, signaling broadening rather than narrowing vulnerability. The DoD’s 110/kg price floor represent the most interventionist government action in the minerals sector, confirming the severity of the dependency.
Evidence against: Diversification is proceeding, albeit slowly. Lynas (Australia) is expanding US-based processing capacity. USA Rare Earth received 600B-2-5 billion, not trillions. This inflation undermines precision about the actual investment required.
Falsification criteria: (1) A technological breakthrough in non-rare-earth permanent magnets eliminates the bottleneck. (2) China offers a negotiated rare earth supply deal that removes the urgency for domestic capacity. (3) Allied (Japan, Australia, EU) rare earth processing reaches sufficient scale to serve US defense needs within 5-7 years. (4) MP Materials produces spec-compliant military magnets (including HREE grades) at scale by 2028, beating the 10-year floor.
Timeline and testability: Continuously testable via supply chain concentration metrics, MP Materials commissioning milestones, and allied processing capacity data.
Current assessment: On track. This is one of the framework’s strongest empirical predictions. The direction, magnitude, and timeline are all well-supported by independent evidence. The main risk to the prediction is non-linear innovation (substitution or recycling breakthroughs) that the framework underweights.