Provenance
This standalone page was migrated from the February 2026 compendium corpus.
The Five Factor Analysis is a macro-geopolitical investment framework built on a three-step model:
Step 1 — Globalization Regime Break. The presenter dates the structural break to approximately 2019, with acceleration following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The core claim is that the post-1945 system of integrated global trade — where allocation decisions were driven by lowest-cost sourcing plus shipping efficiency — has become obsolete. In its place, countries increasingly optimize for controllable supply under conflict, sanctions, and route-disruption risk.
Step 2 — State Behavior Rewrite. Under the broken regime, governments re-optimize national strategy around five domestic survival constraints: food sufficiency, energy sufficiency, technology capability, demographics, and security vulnerability. The operative policy verb shifts from “optimize” to “secure and control.” This is not presented as a temporary emergency response but as a durable regime change spanning 15 or more years.
Step 3 — Capital Regime Shift. Because private return-on-investment is insufficient to fund many strategic bottlenecks and sovereign debt levels are historically elevated, states increasingly direct capital through equity stakes, subsidies, procurement mandates, pension fund redirection, and sovereign fund structures. This produces a new investment map where policy alignment and bottleneck positioning matter more than conventional valuation metrics.
The framework’s central proposition for investors is therefore not “buy geopolitics headlines” but rather: identify multi-year bottlenecks in sovereign survival stacks and own the constrained nodes receiving policy support. The presenter consistently distinguishes this from short-term event trading by applying a time-horizon rule: disruptions solvable within months are trades; structural constraints requiring 5-20 years to resolve are investment themes.
At full maturity — visible in the late February 2026 videos — the framework operates as a four-layer model:
- Sovereign survival scoring (the five country factors)
- System break detection (where globalized supply links fail)
- Policy response mapping (subsidies, mandates, equity stakes, capital controls)
- Investment selection (own constrained chokepoints, especially process monopolies and strategic nodes)