Quantitative Baseline

  • Display score: 4/5
  • Continuous score: 63.6
  • Confidence: VERIFIED
  • Data year: 2023
  • Sources: Our World in Data / UN World Population Prospects
MetricTierRawNormalizedSourceYear
Working-age ratioDOMINANT0.63373.2Our World in Data / UN World Population Prospects2023
Median agePRIMARY45.14759.4Our World in Data / UN World Population Prospects2023
Old-age dependency ratio (2035)PRIMARY35.97238.7Our World in Data / UN World Population Prospects2023

Germany’s demographic score is good enough to support the broader profile, but not good enough to disappear as a strategic issue. The country still has a respectable working-age share and very high human-capital quality, which keeps demographics from becoming an immediate hard stop.

The drag shows up in the age profile. Median age is high and the old-age dependency outlook worsens into the next decade. That matters for fiscal capacity, labor tightness, and the political economy of defense and industrial renewal. Germany can mitigate with immigration, productivity investment, and labor-market reform, but it cannot ignore the trend.

That is why demographics sit below technology and security while still outperforming energy. Germany is not South Korea or Italy on this dimension, but it is also no longer operating with the quiet demographic surplus that underwrote earlier assumptions about effortless industrial continuity.

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